I’ve been a student of psychology, in some shape, form, or fashion, for nearly half of my life now. Something I know for sure: Our brains crave predictability. You can thank your prefrontal cortex and its role in executive functioning.

Executive function includes planning, judgment, decision-making, assessing risk, and anticipating future events and consequences. These high-level intellectual abilities are what makes humans the “king of the jungle,” so to speak, but they can also signal feelings of distress when things go radically different than planned.

Before we go further down the rabbit hole of neuropsychology, does it make sense why the college admissions process can seem so ambiguous and unpredictable? Because in many cases, especially with selective colleges and competitive programs, there are not sure bets. Our brains attempt to hack the system, pre-judge the outcome, and we often get our face cracked.

The Case of Zach and Noah

Zach is a 17-year old student attending a highly regarded public high school in Florida – in fact, the best in his district, judging by rigorous academic curriculum and standardized test scores. He has a 3.8 unweighted GPA, 1420 SAT score. He is a member of the National Honor Society. He’s participated in competitive swimming across all 4 years of high school and is currently team captain. He stumbled on an interest in business after joining his best friend, Noah, in participating in the school’s chapter of DECA. They collaborated on devising a business plan proposal and took it to competition.

Noah and Zach have been best friends for years and attend the same high school. They were able to take many of their classes together Senior year, which is fortunate because they meet up several times a week to go over calculus homework and prepare for AP exams. Noah has a similar GPA – he comes in at 3.7, but scored slightly higher on his SAT: 1460. Like his friend, he’s a National Honor Society member. Swimming wasn’t his thing, but he found his place on the Debate Team. Their team won a regional competition this year. Like Zach, Noah wants to declare a major in business, especially after the positive feedback received on their project submitted to the state competition.

Noah and Zach have shared college plans. Best case scenario: They’re admitted to the same university. They each applied to a number of the same colleges. They agree it will be a major stretch, as their profiles are slightly lower than last year’s crop of admitted students, but they’re both applying to the University of Pennsylania Wharton School of Business. To get in would be their dream.

Rolling the Dice

University of Pennsylvania is among one of the most selective colleges in the United States. Yearly, they are flooded with top applicants with stellar GPAs and standardized test scores, those that have won regional or national competitions, those that have excelled in service to their community, legacy applicants, and the list goes on.

As of today, UPenn reports a 9% acceptance rate. Nearly 39K applications were received for the incoming class of 2020; a little over 3600 students were admitted. The average UPenn student had a 3.9 average GPA and a 1500 SAT score. Wharton specifically looks for well-rounded college candidates, strong academics from a rigorous curriculum, including calculus, and more subjective such as “leaders, movers and shakers, those that will make an impact.”

Will Zach and Noah be admitted? Does one get in but not the other? Do both receive rejection letters?

Wild Cards

We likely won’t know until those admissions decision letters start rolling in. Maybe Zach will gain admission because Penn is looking to add to their swim team roster. Maybe admissions staff will prefer Noah, who was able to parlay his analytical skills from the debate team to craft a much more compelling essay. Alternatively, neither may get in, because they’ve already filled their roster with enough b-school applicants for this admissions cycle.

Although it’s a smart strategy to compare the boys’ profile with the very best data available, there is a certain wild card factor that comes into play with admissions decisions. These are not wholly objective decisions among GPAs, high school rankings, or test score cutoffs. From year to year, it remains unknown what the admissions priorities are for building out a diverse and well-rounded student body. It’s why you cannot just rely solely on statistics, profiles of previous classes, or even anecdotes from someone’s kid who is a current student.

The human brain craves predictability. We endlessly search for tips, tricks, and hacks to stack the deck in our favor. Ambiguity and unpredictability trigger worry, tension, and possibly sleepless nights. At the end of the day, we have to assess and make calculated risks and plan for all types of eventualities.

Yes, pay attention to admitted students’ profiles and acceptance rates, but these are far from the only factors to keep in mind when devising a list of colleges to apply to.